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Definitive Analysis

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Nantong JiangTian Chemical Co., Ltd. (300927.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$296.31 - $349.60$327.40
Multi-Stage$373.05 - $412.47$392.36
Blended Fair Value$359.88
Current Price$26.16
Upside1,275.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.02%0.00%0.180.140.170.140.130.180.140.090.230.00
YoY Growth--27.78%-16.49%25.22%4.59%-28.54%32.36%52.16%-60.89%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.94%1.03%0.90%0.74%0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)252.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3933.9920.40
Cash Retained (M)252.09252.09252.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.39-33.99-20.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)197.70218.10231.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.91143.91143.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.371.521.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.371.521.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.75
WACC / Discount Rate-14.87%-14.87%-14.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$296.31$327.40$349.60
Upside / Downside1,032.69%1,151.53%1,236.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.96269.24266.55263.88261.24258.63266.39
Payout Ratio7.30%23.84%40.38%56.92%73.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.8764.20107.64150.21191.91232.77246.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-14.87%-14.87%-14.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)74.6575.4176.17
Year 2 PV (M)145.54148.53151.54
Year 3 PV (M)236.17243.47250.92
Year 4 PV (M)350.86365.40380.39
Year 5 PV (M)494.84520.61547.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,384.7955,112.5957,952.85
Equity Value (M)53,686.8556,466.0159,359.32
Shares Outstanding (M)143.91143.91143.91
Fair Value$373.05$392.36$412.47
Upside / Downside1,326.04%1,399.87%1,476.72%

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