Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Zhaolong Interconnect Technology Co., Limited (300913.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.07 - $18.08$13.43
Multi-Stage$9.08 - $9.93$9.50
Blended Fair Value$11.46
Current Price$56.20
Upside-79.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.34%0.00%0.110.070.060.050.020.070.100.530.010.00
YoY Growth--53.27%26.92%4.43%134.93%-67.25%-31.14%-80.93%4,160.21%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.22%0.35%0.53%0.21%0.42%0.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)201.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.2825.1715.10
Cash Retained (M)170.23170.23170.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.28-25.17-15.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.96145.06155.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)286.16286.16286.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate4.15%5.15%6.15%
Fair Value$10.07$13.43$18.08
Upside / Downside-82.08%-76.11%-67.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)201.38211.75222.66234.13246.20258.88266.65
Payout Ratio15.47%30.37%45.28%60.19%75.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.1564.32100.82140.92184.88232.99246.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate4.15%5.15%6.15%
Year 1 PV (M)57.9358.4859.04
Year 2 PV (M)81.7983.3684.96
Year 3 PV (M)102.95105.95109.00
Year 4 PV (M)121.65126.39131.27
Year 5 PV (M)138.08144.84151.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,095.962,198.532,305.08
Equity Value (M)2,598.362,717.552,841.20
Shares Outstanding (M)286.16286.16286.16
Fair Value$9.08$9.50$9.93
Upside / Downside-83.84%-83.10%-82.33%

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