DDM Analysis: 2630.TW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.43 - $50.75	$31.60
Multi-Stage	$15.88 - $17.30	$16.58
Blended Fair Value	$24.09
Current Price	$54.70
Upside	-55.96%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.57%	15.42%	0.53	0.28	0.18	0.09	0.05	0.57	0.72	0.79	0.00	0.50
YoY Growth	-	-	90.27%	54.99%	91.30%	104.75%	-92.00%	-21.37%	-8.60%	0.00%	-100.00%	300.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.47%	0.73%	1.02%	0.59%	0.32%	5.72%	4.16%	3.37%	0.00%	1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	213.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	129.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	83.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	42.65	26.66	15.99
Cash Retained (M)	83.29	83.29	83.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-42.65	-26.66	-15.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	40.64	56.63	67.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	211.05	211.05	211.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.27	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	0.62	0.62	0.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.27	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.81	0.88	0.93
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$21.43	$31.60	$50.75
Upside / Downside	-60.82%	-42.23%	-7.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	213.26	227.12	241.89	257.61	274.35	292.19	300.95
Payout Ratio	60.94%	66.75%	72.57%	78.38%	84.19%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	129.97	151.62	175.53	201.91	230.97	262.97	278.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	137.19	138.49	139.79
Year 2 PV (M)	143.71	146.45	149.21
Year 3 PV (M)	149.57	153.87	158.24
Year 4 PV (M)	154.82	160.78	166.90
Year 5 PV (M)	159.49	167.20	175.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,605.68	2,731.54	2,862.21
Equity Value (M)	3,350.47	3,498.32	3,651.55
Shares Outstanding (M)	211.05	211.05	211.05
Fair Value	$15.88	$16.58	$17.30
Upside / Downside	-70.98%	-69.70%	-68.37%

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Air Asia Co., Ltd. (2630.TW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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