DDM Analysis: 2378.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.11 - $5.29	$4.74
Multi-Stage	$9.09 - $10.11	$9.59
Blended Fair Value	$7.16
Current Price	$9.06
Upside	-20.93%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.85%	-8.84%	0.20	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.30	0.46	0.48	0.58	0.58	0.53
YoY Growth	-	-	3.56%	12.45%	12.59%	-48.28%	-34.01%	-5.39%	-16.76%	0.19%	8.33%	3.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.20%	2.24%	1.51%	1.23%	2.28%	3.19%	3.59%	3.06%	3.60%	3.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,126.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,050.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,076.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	825.40	515.87	309.52
Cash Retained (M)	3,076.10	3,076.10	3,076.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-825.40	-515.87	-309.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,250.70	2,560.23	2,766.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,708.18	2,708.18	2,708.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.83	0.95	1.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.39	0.39	0.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.83	0.95	1.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.22	1.33	1.41
WACC / Discount Rate	8.71%	8.71%	8.71%
Growth Rate	-16.15%	-15.15%	-14.15%
Fair Value	$4.11	$4.74	$5.29
Upside / Downside	-54.63%	-47.68%	-41.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,126.99	3,501.60	2,970.98	2,520.77	2,138.79	1,814.68	1,869.12
Payout Ratio	25.46%	38.37%	51.28%	64.19%	77.09%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,050.89	1,343.60	1,523.47	1,617.97	1,648.85	1,633.21	1,728.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.71%	8.71%	8.71%
Growth Rate	-16.15%	-15.15%	-14.15%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,221.34	1,235.90	1,250.47
Year 2 PV (M)	1,258.82	1,289.03	1,319.59
Year 3 PV (M)	1,215.26	1,259.26	1,304.31
Year 4 PV (M)	1,125.75	1,180.43	1,237.07
Year 5 PV (M)	1,013.61	1,075.52	1,140.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,778.94	19,925.81	21,128.05
Equity Value (M)	24,613.72	25,965.95	27,379.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,708.18	2,708.18	2,708.18
Fair Value	$9.09	$9.59	$10.11
Upside / Downside	0.32%	5.83%	11.59%

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Prudential plc (2378.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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