DDM Analysis: 1230.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.33 - $0.50	$0.41
Multi-Stage	$0.63 - $0.69	$0.66
Blended Fair Value	$0.54
Current Price	$1.00
Upside	-46.17%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-52.38%	-43.27%	-90.67%	603.54%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.60%	0.00%	0.00%	0.56%	0.97%	1.58%	8.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	194.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	59.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)	135.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	38.94	24.34	14.60
Cash Retained (M)	135.28	135.28	135.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-38.94	-24.34	-14.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	96.34	110.95	120.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,745.56	4,745.56	4,745.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.03	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	7.61%	7.61%	7.61%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.33	$0.41	$0.50
Upside / Downside	-66.47%	-58.65%	-50.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	194.69	192.74	190.81	188.90	187.02	185.14	190.70
Payout Ratio	30.51%	42.41%	54.31%	66.21%	78.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	59.41	81.74	103.63	125.06	146.06	166.63	176.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.61%	7.61%	7.61%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	75.19	75.96	76.73
Year 2 PV (M)	87.68	89.48	91.30
Year 3 PV (M)	97.34	100.35	103.43
Year 4 PV (M)	104.58	108.91	113.38
Year 5 PV (M)	109.74	115.46	121.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,518.15	2,649.27	2,785.80
Equity Value (M)	2,992.68	3,139.43	3,292.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,745.56	4,745.56	4,745.56
Fair Value	$0.63	$0.66	$0.69
Upside / Downside	-36.80%	-33.70%	-30.48%

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Yashili International Holdings Ltd (1230.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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