DDM Analysis: 0826.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.66 - $4.23	$3.37
Multi-Stage	$5.78 - $6.36	$6.06
Blended Fair Value	$4.72
Current Price	$1.83
Upside	157.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.61%	5.51%	0.06	0.04	0.06	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	63.43%	-39.27%	-20.02%	54.26%	47.87%	-9.48%	352.70%	48.40%	-84.53%	0.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.38%	1.95%	2.37%	1.94%	1.68%	1.14%	2.25%	0.79%	0.61%	6.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	713.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	264.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	449.21

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	142.77	89.23	53.54
Cash Retained (M)	449.21	449.21	449.21
(-) Cash Required (M)	-142.77	-89.23	-53.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)	306.44	359.97	395.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,746.59	2,746.59	2,746.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.13	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.13	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-1.37%	-0.37%	0.63%
Fair Value	$2.66	$3.37	$4.23
Upside / Downside	45.28%	84.42%	131.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	713.85	711.24	708.65	706.06	703.48	700.91	721.94
Payout Ratio	37.07%	47.66%	58.24%	68.83%	79.41%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	264.64	338.97	412.74	485.97	558.67	630.82	667.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-1.37%	-0.37%	0.63%
Year 1 PV (M)	315.53	318.73	321.93
Year 2 PV (M)	357.64	364.93	372.29
Year 3 PV (M)	391.99	404.03	416.32
Year 4 PV (M)	419.47	436.74	454.54
Year 5 PV (M)	440.90	463.70	487.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,936.87	14,657.83	15,408.32
Equity Value (M)	15,862.39	16,645.96	17,460.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,746.59	2,746.59	2,746.59
Fair Value	$5.78	$6.06	$6.36
Upside / Downside	215.59%	231.18%	247.39%

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Tiangong International Company Limited (0826.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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