Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,395.16 - $2,214.91 | $1,768.62 |
| Multi-Stage | $3,126.62 - $3,437.93 | $3,279.24 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,523.93 | |
| Current Price | $1,798.00 | |
| Upside | 40.37% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.56% | 15.83% | 99.47 | 109.41 | 89.52 | 39.79 | 99.47 | 79.57 | 49.73 | 49.73 | 34.81 | 16.91 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -9.09% | 22.22% | 125.00% | -60.00% | 25.00% | 60.00% | 0.00% | 42.86% | 105.88% | -26.09% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.99% | 5.57% | 4.04% | 1.51% | 4.42% | 4.88% | 2.05% | 2.04% | 1.11% | 0.51% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,133.10 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,985.41 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,147.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,226.62 | 766.64 | 459.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,147.70 | 2,147.70 | 2,147.70 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,226.62 | -766.64 | -459.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 921.08 | 1,381.06 | 1,687.71 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 44.52 | 44.52 | 44.52 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 20.69 | 31.02 | 37.91 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 89.52 | 89.52 | 89.52 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 20.69 | 31.02 | 37.91 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 110.21 | 120.54 | 127.43 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -1.45% | -0.45% | 0.55% |
| Fair Value | $1,395.16 | $1,768.62 | $2,214.91 |
| Upside / Downside | -22.41% | -1.63% | 23.19% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,133.10 | 6,105.61 | 6,078.24 | 6,051.00 | 6,023.88 | 5,996.87 | 6,176.78 |
| Payout Ratio | 64.98% | 69.99% | 74.99% | 79.99% | 85.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,985.41 | 4,273.05 | 4,558.02 | 4,840.36 | 5,120.08 | 5,397.19 | 5,713.52 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -1.45% | -0.45% | 0.55% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,978.05 | 4,018.41 | 4,058.78 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,950.40 | 4,030.98 | 4,112.37 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,905.48 | 4,025.58 | 4,148.12 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,845.97 | 4,004.46 | 4,167.80 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,774.24 | 3,969.65 | 4,173.07 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 119,743.85 | 125,943.58 | 132,397.47 |
| Equity Value (M) | 139,198.00 | 145,992.66 | 153,057.61 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 44.52 | 44.52 | 44.52 |
| Fair Value | $3,126.62 | $3,279.24 | $3,437.93 |
| Upside / Downside | 73.89% | 82.38% | 91.21% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPD | Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.50 | 24.32% |
| LISOX | Lazard International Strategic Equity Ptf Open Shares | 0.99% | $0.13 | 36.87% |
| MXC | Mexco Energy Corporation | 0.99% | $0.10 | 12.25% |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.19 | 12.58% |
| PAYC | Paycom Software, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.51 | 18.80% |
| RRC | Range Resources Corporation | 0.99% | $0.35 | 14.60% |
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance Corporation | 0.99% | $1.32 | 7.58% |
| WOR | Worthington Industries, Inc. | 0.99% | $0.52 | 23.95% |
| CNXN | PC Connection, Inc. | 0.98% | $0.56 | 16.89% |
| CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | 0.97% | $5.78 | 29.40% |
| CNK | Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | 0.97% | $0.23 | 18.28% |
| ECL | Ecolab Inc. | 0.97% | $2.54 | 36.57% |
| EVR | Evercore Inc. | 0.97% | $3.41 | 27.02% |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc. | 0.96% | $0.14 | 24.34% |
| 0ITL.L | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 0.95% | $2.42 | 39.43% |
| 0IZI.L | W.W. Grainger, Inc. | 0.95% | $9.52 | 26.47% |
| 0L5V.L | The Sherwin-Williams Company | 0.95% | $3.11 | 30.09% |
| 0R2S.L | Stryker Corporation | 0.95% | $3.28 | 43.09% |
| RRX | Regal Rexnord Corporation | 0.95% | $1.39 | 36.07% |
| WT | WisdomTree, Inc. | 0.95% | $0.12 | 18.12% |
| J | Jacobs Solutions Inc. | 0.94% | $1.27 | 53.80% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | 0.94% | $1.84 | 34.81% |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. | 0.94% | $0.17 | 19.22% |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets, Incorporated | 0.93% | $0.65 | 14.68% |
| ODC | Oil-Dri Corporation of America | 0.93% | $0.45 | 12.28% |
| PENG | Penguin Solutions, Inc. | 0.93% | $0.19 | 40.17% |
| SSBK | Southern States Bancshares, Inc. | 0.93% | $0.34 | 9.19% |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | 0.92% | $0.63 | 8.94% |
| HIFS | Hingham Institution for Savings | 0.92% | $2.49 | 12.15% |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corporation | 0.92% | $3.34 | 24.37% |
| OPY | Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. | 0.91% | $0.66 | 8.90% |
| BGC | BGC Group, Inc | 0.90% | $0.08 | 23.56% |
| CDRE | Cadre Holdings, Inc. | 0.90% | $0.37 | 33.35% |
| MBNKP | Medallion Bank | 0.90% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| JBHT | J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 0.89% | $1.75 | 30.14% |
| NYT | The New York Times Company | 0.89% | $0.62 | 30.32% |
| RMD | ResMed Inc. | 0.89% | $2.18 | 22.31% |
| VBFC | Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. | 0.89% | $0.72 | 15.35% |
| 0I14.L | Cognex Corporation | 0.88% | $0.32 | 49.16% |
| AR | Antero Resources Corporation | 0.88% | $0.30 | 17.15% |
| LDOS | Leidos Holdings, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.61 | 14.88% |
| LMAT | LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. | 0.88% | $0.70 | 32.20% |
| NNI | Nelnet, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.14 | 9.52% |
| PFSI | PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.16 | 12.49% |
| SMBK | SmartFinancial, Inc. | 0.88% | $0.32 | 11.76% |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming Corporation | 0.87% | $0.75 | 3.22% |
| ROST | Ross Stores, Inc. | 0.87% | $1.59 | 24.85% |
| BBSI | Barrett Business Services, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.31 | 15.02% |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | 0.86% | $1.00 | 24.81% |
| HXL | Hexcel Corporation | 0.86% | $0.66 | 77.18% |