Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Moonbaesteel Co.,Ltd (008420.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$992.94 - $1,537.65$1,245.38
Multi-Stage$2,303.45 - $2,536.08$2,417.48
Blended Fair Value$1,831.43
Current Price$2,380.00
Upside-23.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.29%-0.05%50.6651.1477.1051.4051.4051.4047.6747.6747.6750.91
YoY Growth---0.94%-33.67%50.00%0.00%0.00%7.83%0.00%0.00%-6.38%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.22%1.76%2.20%1.01%1.28%3.23%1.52%1.56%1.52%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,028.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)929.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,099.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)405.77253.61152.16
Cash Retained (M)1,099.731,099.731,099.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-405.77-253.61-152.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)693.96846.12947.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.0619.0619.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share36.4144.3949.71
LTM Dividend per Share48.7448.7448.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share36.4144.3949.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend85.1593.1398.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Fair Value$992.94$1,245.38$1,537.65
Upside / Downside-58.28%-47.67%-35.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,028.852,007.541,986.441,965.571,944.921,924.491,982.22
Payout Ratio45.80%54.64%63.48%72.32%81.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)929.131,096.851,260.941,421.471,578.481,732.041,833.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Year 1 PV (M)1,020.951,031.371,041.79
Year 2 PV (M)1,092.461,114.881,137.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,146.311,181.781,217.98
Year 4 PV (M)1,184.841,233.981,284.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,210.141,273.181,338.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,252.8240,245.7942,320.97
Equity Value (M)43,907.5346,080.9848,341.72
Shares Outstanding (M)19.0619.0619.06
Fair Value$2,303.45$2,417.48$2,536.08
Upside / Downside-3.22%1.57%6.56%

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