DDM Analysis: 002996.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.93 - $40.98	$38.40
Multi-Stage	$6.31 - $6.90	$6.60
Blended Fair Value	$22.50
Current Price	$7.90
Upside	184.84%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.41%	7.99%	0.17	0.12	0.13	0.14	0.03	0.06	0.08	0.08	0.05	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	44.38%	-8.33%	-5.19%	329.37%	-51.04%	-15.19%	-1.80%	46.18%	-37.79%	7.96%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.43%	1.60%	1.29%	1.41%	0.18%	0.69%	0.82%	0.83%	0.57%	0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	145.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	99.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)	46.09

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	29.15	18.22	10.93
Cash Retained (M)	46.09	46.09	46.09
(-) Cash Required (M)	-29.15	-18.22	-10.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	16.94	27.87	35.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	707.36	707.36	707.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.16	0.18	0.19
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$18.93	$38.40	$40.98
Upside / Downside	139.64%	386.07%	418.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	145.74	155.21	165.30	176.05	187.49	199.68	205.67
Payout Ratio	68.38%	72.70%	77.03%	81.35%	85.68%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	99.65	112.84	127.33	143.22	160.63	179.71	190.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	105.04	106.04	107.03
Year 2 PV (M)	110.33	112.43	114.55
Year 3 PV (M)	115.52	118.83	122.21
Year 4 PV (M)	120.61	125.25	130.02
Year 5 PV (M)	125.60	131.67	137.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,889.54	4,077.40	4,272.46
Equity Value (M)	4,466.64	4,671.62	4,884.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	707.36	707.36	707.36
Fair Value	$6.31	$6.60	$6.90
Upside / Downside	-20.07%	-16.40%	-12.60%

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Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Co.,Ltd. (002996.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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