DDM Analysis: 002946.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$81.46 - $155.44	$145.67
Multi-Stage	$24.35 - $26.66	$25.48
Blended Fair Value	$85.58
Current Price	$17.07
Upside	401.33%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	34.32%	14.51%	0.25	0.24	0.07	0.19	0.16	0.06	0.09	0.10	0.47	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	7.36%	221.81%	-60.31%	13.79%	180.24%	-35.16%	-10.50%	-78.73%	285.93%	86.10%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.73%	2.24%	0.45%	1.57%	0.99%	0.46%	0.48%	1.28%	6.02%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	686.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	288.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	398.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	137.36	85.85	51.51
Cash Retained (M)	398.54	398.54	398.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-137.36	-85.85	-51.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	261.18	312.69	347.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	878.74	878.74	878.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.36	0.39
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.36	0.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.63	0.68	0.72
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$81.46	$145.67	$155.44
Upside / Downside	377.19%	753.37%	810.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	686.82	731.47	779.01	829.65	883.57	941.01	969.24
Payout Ratio	41.97%	51.58%	61.18%	70.79%	80.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	288.28	377.28	476.63	587.30	710.35	846.91	896.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	351.55	354.89	358.22
Year 2 PV (M)	413.85	421.73	429.69
Year 3 PV (M)	475.17	488.81	502.71
Year 4 PV (M)	535.53	556.13	577.31
Year 5 PV (M)	594.95	623.69	653.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)	19,028.76	19,947.85	20,902.13
Equity Value (M)	21,399.81	22,393.10	23,423.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	878.74	878.74	878.74
Fair Value	$24.35	$25.48	$26.66
Upside / Downside	42.67%	49.29%	56.16%

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New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. (002946.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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