DDM Analysis: 002928.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$38.45 - $88.99	$83.39
Multi-Stage	$25.68 - $28.20	$26.91
Blended Fair Value	$55.15
Current Price	$10.02
Upside	450.41%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.72%	26.88%	0.16	0.16	0.13	0.15	0.13	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.30%	20.91%	-11.01%	12.70%	9.25%	23.40%	128.43%	255.29%	-68.49%	159.43%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.18%	2.68%	1.13%	1.44%	0.82%	1.40%	1.00%	0.25%	0.09%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	581.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	155.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)	425.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	116.24	72.65	43.59
Cash Retained (M)	425.25	425.25	425.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-116.24	-72.65	-43.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	309.00	352.60	381.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,277.41	1,277.41	1,277.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.36	0.40	0.42
WACC / Discount Rate	4.71%	4.71%	4.71%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Fair Value	$38.45	$83.39	$88.99
Upside / Downside	283.74%	732.20%	788.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	581.22	608.68	637.43	667.54	699.07	732.09	754.05
Payout Ratio	26.84%	39.47%	52.10%	64.73%	77.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	155.98	240.24	332.11	432.13	540.85	658.88	697.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.71%	4.71%	4.71%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	227.25	229.44	231.63
Year 2 PV (M)	297.17	302.93	308.74
Year 3 PV (M)	365.76	376.45	387.33
Year 4 PV (M)	433.04	449.99	467.42
Year 5 PV (M)	499.03	523.55	549.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	30,976.36	32,498.65	34,080.21
Equity Value (M)	32,798.62	34,381.01	36,024.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,277.41	1,277.41	1,277.41
Fair Value	$25.68	$26.91	$28.20
Upside / Downside	156.25%	168.61%	181.45%

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EXPD	Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.	0.99%	$1.50	24.32%
LISOX	Lazard International Strategic Equity Ptf Open Shares	0.99%	$0.13	36.87%
MXC	Mexco Energy Corporation	0.99%	$0.10	12.25%
NIC	Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.	0.99%	$1.19	12.58%
PAYC	Paycom Software, Inc.	0.99%	$1.51	18.80%
RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
CNK	Cinemark Holdings, Inc.	0.97%	$0.23	18.28%
ECL	Ecolab Inc.	0.97%	$2.54	36.57%
EVR	Evercore Inc.	0.97%	$3.41	27.02%
LSBK	Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc.	0.96%	$0.14	24.34%
0ITL.L	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	0.95%	$2.42	39.43%
0IZI.L	W.W. Grainger, Inc.	0.95%	$9.52	26.47%
0L5V.L	The Sherwin-Williams Company	0.95%	$3.11	30.09%
0R2S.L	Stryker Corporation	0.95%	$3.28	43.09%
RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
IMKTA	Ingles Markets, Incorporated	0.93%	$0.65	14.68%
ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
BGC	BGC Group, Inc	0.90%	$0.08	23.56%
CDRE	Cadre Holdings, Inc.	0.90%	$0.37	33.35%
MBNKP	Medallion Bank	0.90%	$0.23	12.50%
JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
RMD	ResMed Inc.	0.89%	$2.18	22.31%
VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
0I14.L	Cognex Corporation	0.88%	$0.32	49.16%
AR	Antero Resources Corporation	0.88%	$0.30	17.15%
LDOS	Leidos Holdings, Inc.	0.88%	$1.61	14.88%
LMAT	LeMaitre Vascular, Inc.	0.88%	$0.70	32.20%
NNI	Nelnet, Inc.	0.88%	$1.14	9.52%
PFSI	PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.	0.88%	$1.16	12.49%
SMBK	SmartFinancial, Inc.	0.88%	$0.32	11.76%
BYD	Boyd Gaming Corporation	0.87%	$0.75	3.22%
ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
BCO	The Brink's Company	0.86%	$1.00	24.81%
HXL	Hexcel Corporation	0.86%	$0.66	77.18%

Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China Express Airlines Co.,LTD (002928.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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