DDM Analysis: 002738.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.60 - $30.85	$18.79
Multi-Stage	$8.79 - $9.61	$9.19
Blended Fair Value	$13.99
Current Price	$49.50
Upside	-71.73%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	126.66%	50.99%	1.15	0.71	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	63.20%	1,464.23%	101.97%	16.04%	0.00%	44.51%	-50.03%	54.43%	-30.77%	33.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.59%	1.82%	0.09%	0.05%	0.16%	0.25%	0.14%	0.19%	0.12%	0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	415.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	83.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	331.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	83.09	51.93	31.16
Cash Retained (M)	331.83	331.83	331.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-83.09	-51.93	-31.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	248.75	279.90	300.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	721.49	721.49	721.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.39	0.42
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.39	0.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.46	0.50	0.53
WACC / Discount Rate	9.36%	9.36%	9.36%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.60	$18.79	$30.85
Upside / Downside	-74.54%	-62.04%	-37.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	415.44	442.45	471.21	501.83	534.45	569.19	586.27
Payout Ratio	20.13%	34.10%	48.08%	62.05%	76.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	83.61	150.88	226.53	311.39	406.32	512.27	542.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.36%	9.36%	9.36%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	136.67	137.97	139.26
Year 2 PV (M)	185.89	189.43	193.00
Year 3 PV (M)	231.47	238.11	244.88
Year 4 PV (M)	273.60	284.12	294.94
Year 5 PV (M)	312.47	327.56	343.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,204.46	5,455.84	5,716.84
Equity Value (M)	6,344.55	6,633.03	6,932.16
Shares Outstanding (M)	721.49	721.49	721.49
Fair Value	$8.79	$9.19	$9.61
Upside / Downside	-82.24%	-81.43%	-80.59%

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DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
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Sinomine Resource Group Co., Ltd. (002738.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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