Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Liangxin Electrical Co.,LTD. (002706.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.67 - $56.35$52.80
Multi-Stage$8.17 - $8.92$8.54
Blended Fair Value$30.67
Current Price$11.35
Upside170.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.14%15.10%0.260.220.230.230.180.180.120.100.060.03
YoY Growth--21.91%-6.81%-0.54%30.03%0.63%47.74%24.99%60.86%114.47%-56.66%
Dividend Yield--2.93%2.71%1.82%1.93%0.76%1.96%2.34%1.73%0.85%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)305.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)243.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.1338.2122.92
Cash Retained (M)62.6262.6262.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.13-38.21-22.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.4924.4139.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,078.841,078.841,078.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.67$52.80$56.35
Upside / Downside82.10%365.23%396.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)305.66325.53346.68369.22393.22418.78431.34
Payout Ratio79.51%81.61%83.71%85.81%87.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)243.04265.66290.20316.81345.65376.90398.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)246.74249.08251.42
Year 2 PV (M)250.34255.11259.92
Year 3 PV (M)253.83261.11268.54
Year 4 PV (M)257.21267.10277.28
Year 5 PV (M)260.49273.07286.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,540.717,904.938,283.09
Equity Value (M)8,809.339,210.419,626.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,078.841,078.841,078.84
Fair Value$8.17$8.54$8.92
Upside / Downside-28.06%-24.78%-21.38%

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