DDM Analysis: 002595.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$56.37 - $120.12	$80.16
Multi-Stage	$40.79 - $44.57	$42.65
Blended Fair Value	$61.40
Current Price	$59.25
Upside	3.63%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.18%	20.90%	1.00	0.38	0.37	0.38	0.39	0.42	0.40	0.38	0.25	0.25
YoY Growth	-	-	167.28%	0.22%	-0.40%	-2.56%	-7.52%	4.06%	5.00%	52.00%	-0.48%	67.85%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.70%	1.05%	1.20%	1.95%	1.31%	2.47%	1.88%	2.32%	1.01%	1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,382.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	300.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,082.57

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	476.56	297.85	178.71
Cash Retained (M)	2,082.57	2,082.57	2,082.57
(-) Cash Required (M)	-476.56	-297.85	-178.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,606.01	1,784.72	1,903.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	797.65	797.65	797.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.01	2.24	2.39
LTM Dividend per Share	0.38	0.38	0.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.01	2.24	2.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.39	2.61	2.76
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$56.37	$80.16	$120.12
Upside / Downside	-4.87%	35.28%	102.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,382.82	2,537.71	2,702.66	2,878.33	3,065.42	3,264.68	3,362.62
Payout Ratio	12.60%	28.08%	43.56%	59.04%	74.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	300.25	712.60	1,177.29	1,699.37	2,284.36	2,938.21	3,110.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	641.89	647.98	654.06
Year 2 PV (M)	955.25	973.44	991.81
Year 3 PV (M)	1,242.05	1,277.71	1,314.04
Year 4 PV (M)	1,503.94	1,561.78	1,621.27
Year 5 PV (M)	1,742.47	1,826.64	1,914.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	26,453.43	27,731.14	29,057.75
Equity Value (M)	32,539.04	34,018.68	35,552.95
Shares Outstanding (M)	797.65	797.65	797.65
Fair Value	$40.79	$42.65	$44.57
Upside / Downside	-31.15%	-28.02%	-24.77%

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Financial Statements

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Himile Mechanical Science and Technology (Shandong) Co., Ltd (002595.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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