Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Stanley Agriculture Group Co.,Ltd. (002588.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.58 - $168.71$158.10
Multi-Stage$27.22 - $29.81$28.49
Blended Fair Value$93.30
Current Price$9.25
Upside908.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.93%3.89%0.150.060.070.070.020.050.080.120.110.14
YoY Growth--164.69%-19.02%0.07%204.25%-51.47%-41.58%-33.59%12.28%-18.11%29.64%
Dividend Yield--2.08%0.90%1.20%1.06%0.42%1.06%1.62%1.80%1.11%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)976.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)348.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)628.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)195.39122.1273.27
Cash Retained (M)628.87628.87628.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-195.39-122.12-73.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)433.48506.75555.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,151.641,151.641,151.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.440.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.440.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.58$158.10$168.71
Upside / Downside998.19%1,609.21%1,723.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)976.941,040.441,108.071,180.101,256.801,338.501,378.65
Payout Ratio35.63%46.50%57.38%68.25%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)348.08483.84635.78805.44994.461,204.651,275.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)451.30455.57459.85
Year 2 PV (M)553.13563.66574.30
Year 3 PV (M)653.59672.35691.47
Year 4 PV (M)752.70781.64811.42
Year 5 PV (M)850.46891.53934.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,092.2729,449.1430,857.93
Equity Value (M)31,353.4432,813.9134,329.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,151.641,151.641,151.64
Fair Value$27.22$28.49$29.81
Upside / Downside194.32%208.03%222.26%

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