DDM Analysis: 002497.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.32 - $15.87	$10.48
Multi-Stage	$5.34 - $5.84	$5.59
Blended Fair Value	$8.03
Current Price	$14.87
Upside	-45.99%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	34.69%	-3.51%	0.07	0.47	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.05	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-84.37%	1,457.29%	-17.44%	194.57%	-25.11%	-1.39%	-60.00%	-16.67%	20.00%	-60.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.60%	4.29%	0.14%	0.13%	0.07%	0.24%	0.20%	0.31%	0.55%	0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	436.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	102.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)	334.09

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	87.30	54.56	32.74
Cash Retained (M)	334.09	334.09	334.09
(-) Cash Required (M)	-87.30	-54.56	-32.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	246.79	279.53	301.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,148.03	1,148.03	1,148.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.24	0.26
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.24	0.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.33	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	9.88%	9.88%	9.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$7.32	$10.48	$15.87
Upside / Downside	-50.75%	-29.54%	6.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	436.50	464.87	495.08	527.26	561.54	598.04	615.98
Payout Ratio	23.46%	36.77%	50.08%	63.38%	76.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	102.41	170.93	247.92	334.20	430.65	538.23	569.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.88%	9.88%	9.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	154.09	155.55	157.02
Year 2 PV (M)	201.50	205.33	209.21
Year 3 PV (M)	244.87	251.90	259.07
Year 4 PV (M)	284.47	295.41	306.66
Year 5 PV (M)	320.52	336.00	352.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,930.62	5,168.77	5,416.04
Equity Value (M)	6,136.08	6,412.98	6,700.07
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,148.03	1,148.03	1,148.03
Fair Value	$5.34	$5.59	$5.84
Upside / Downside	-64.06%	-62.43%	-60.75%

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Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (002497.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener