DDM Analysis: 002389.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.84 - $1.30	$1.05
Multi-Stage	$1.13 - $1.24	$1.18
Blended Fair Value	$1.12
Current Price	$23.11
Upside	-95.16%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.59%	3.20%	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.80%	-6.61%	68.10%	-0.35%	-10.42%	14.01%	483.37%	-64.39%	-32.33%	-37.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.33%	0.40%	0.32%	0.23%	0.21%	0.43%	0.29%	0.04%	0.09%	0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	88.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	67.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.61	11.01	6.61
Cash Retained (M)	20.60	20.60	20.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.61	-11.01	-6.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2.98	9.59	13.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	981.20	981.20	981.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.08	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	9.81%	9.81%	9.81%
Growth Rate	1.20%	2.20%	3.20%
Fair Value	$0.84	$1.05	$1.30
Upside / Downside	-96.35%	-95.44%	-94.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	88.07	90.01	91.99	94.01	96.07	98.18	101.13
Payout Ratio	76.61%	79.29%	81.97%	84.64%	87.32%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	67.47	71.37	75.40	79.57	83.89	88.37	93.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.81%	9.81%	9.81%
Growth Rate	1.20%	2.20%	3.20%
Year 1 PV (M)	64.36	64.99	65.63
Year 2 PV (M)	61.31	62.53	63.76
Year 3 PV (M)	58.35	60.10	61.88
Year 4 PV (M)	55.48	57.70	59.99
Year 5 PV (M)	52.69	55.35	58.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	819.28	860.57	903.50
Equity Value (M)	1,111.47	1,161.24	1,212.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	981.20	981.20	981.20
Fair Value	$1.13	$1.18	$1.24
Upside / Downside	-95.10%	-94.88%	-94.65%

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Aerospace CH UAV Co.,Ltd (002389.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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