Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Wanma Co., Ltd. (002276.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.87 - $9.72$7.57
Multi-Stage$6.04 - $6.61$6.32
Blended Fair Value$6.94
Current Price$18.12
Upside-61.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.00%0.58%0.100.120.100.060.080.100.080.160.140.09
YoY Growth---13.33%15.01%72.03%-26.98%-16.04%22.72%-50.65%17.77%50.57%-6.14%
Dividend Yield--0.72%1.26%1.02%0.87%1.21%1.20%1.10%2.06%1.04%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)498.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)74.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)423.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.6162.2637.36
Cash Retained (M)423.36423.36423.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.61-62.26-37.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)323.74361.10386.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,007.481,007.481,007.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.360.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.360.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$5.87$7.57$9.72
Upside / Downside-67.60%-58.20%-46.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)498.07518.31539.38561.30584.12607.86626.09
Payout Ratio15.00%30.00%45.00%60.00%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)74.71155.49242.72336.78438.09547.07579.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)139.99141.35142.71
Year 2 PV (M)196.73200.57204.44
Year 3 PV (M)245.75252.97260.33
Year 4 PV (M)287.80299.13310.79
Year 5 PV (M)323.56339.56356.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,887.335,129.085,380.30
Equity Value (M)6,081.156,362.656,654.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,007.481,007.481,007.48
Fair Value$6.04$6.32$6.61
Upside / Downside-66.69%-65.15%-63.55%

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