DDM Analysis: 002263.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.09 - $0.11	$0.10
Multi-Stage	$0.15 - $0.17	$0.16
Blended Fair Value	$0.13
Current Price	$3.69
Upside	-96.45%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-28.42%	-19.99%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-4.54%	643.83%	228.46%	-29.42%	-98.86%	-46.19%	-15.95%	92.03%	-42.42%	14.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.10%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.01%	0.66%	1.13%	0.98%	0.42%	0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	50.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	50.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.17	6.35	3.81
Cash Retained (M)	50.05	50.05	50.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.17	-6.35	-3.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)	39.88	43.69	46.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,870.94	1,870.94	1,870.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.02	0.02	0.03
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-12.20%	-11.20%	-10.20%
Fair Value	$0.09	$0.10	$0.11
Upside / Downside	-97.67%	-97.30%	-96.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	50.83	45.14	40.08	35.60	31.61	28.07	28.91
Payout Ratio	1.53%	19.23%	36.92%	54.61%	72.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.78	8.68	14.80	19.44	22.86	25.26	26.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-12.20%	-11.20%	-10.20%
Year 1 PV (M)	7.80	7.89	7.98
Year 2 PV (M)	11.96	12.23	12.51
Year 3 PV (M)	14.12	14.61	15.10
Year 4 PV (M)	14.92	15.61	16.33
Year 5 PV (M)	14.82	15.69	16.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	224.17	237.23	250.89
Equity Value (M)	287.79	303.25	319.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,870.94	1,870.94	1,870.94
Fair Value	$0.15	$0.16	$0.17
Upside / Downside	-95.83%	-95.61%	-95.37%

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Zhejiang Great Southeast Corp.Ltd (002263.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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