DDM Analysis: 002259.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.44 - $0.62	$0.53
Multi-Stage	$0.67 - $0.73	$0.70
Blended Fair Value	$0.62
Current Price	$4.08
Upside	-84.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.64%	-16.69%	0.02	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.07	0.10	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.30%	183.11%	-29.47%	801.51%	-79.73%	-12.77%	-78.51%	-31.46%	66.06%	-58.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.97%	1.36%	0.46%	0.78%	0.06%	0.57%	0.56%	1.14%	1.03%	0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	51.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.88

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.38	6.49	3.89
Cash Retained (M)	39.88	39.88	39.88
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.38	-6.49	-3.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)	29.50	33.39	35.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	752.93	752.93	752.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.06	0.06	0.06
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-2.21%	-1.21%	-0.21%
Fair Value	$0.44	$0.53	$0.62
Upside / Downside	-89.17%	-86.96%	-84.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	51.90	51.28	50.66	50.05	49.44	48.85	50.31
Payout Ratio	23.17%	36.54%	49.90%	63.27%	76.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.03	18.73	25.28	31.66	37.89	43.96	46.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-2.21%	-1.21%	-0.21%
Year 1 PV (M)	16.86	17.03	17.20
Year 2 PV (M)	20.47	20.89	21.32
Year 3 PV (M)	23.08	23.79	24.52
Year 4 PV (M)	24.85	25.88	26.95
Year 5 PV (M)	25.95	27.30	28.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	392.73	413.23	434.57
Equity Value (M)	503.95	528.14	553.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	752.93	752.93	752.93
Fair Value	$0.67	$0.70	$0.73
Upside / Downside	-83.60%	-82.81%	-81.99%

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Sichuan Shengda Forestry Industry Co., Ltd (002259.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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