Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd. (002209.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.39 - $14.34$10.97
Multi-Stage$8.99 - $9.85$9.41
Blended Fair Value$10.19
Current Price$15.00
Upside-32.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.17%-7.92%0.050.070.050.070.060.060.070.060.070.08
YoY Growth---30.36%27.04%-17.04%17.32%-10.95%-4.59%7.56%-14.19%-9.46%-28.29%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.72%0.51%0.85%0.87%1.00%0.77%0.67%0.40%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.2216.399.83
Cash Retained (M)117.44117.44117.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.22-16.39-9.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.22101.05107.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.46199.46199.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.510.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.510.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate2.77%3.77%4.77%
Fair Value$8.39$10.97$14.34
Upside / Downside-44.07%-26.88%-4.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.09136.03141.15146.47151.98157.71162.44
Payout Ratio10.41%26.33%42.25%58.17%74.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.6535.8259.6385.19112.59141.94150.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate2.77%3.77%4.77%
Year 1 PV (M)32.4832.8033.11
Year 2 PV (M)49.0450.0050.97
Year 3 PV (M)63.5465.4167.32
Year 4 PV (M)76.1579.1682.26
Year 5 PV (M)87.0691.3895.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,484.741,558.401,634.95
Equity Value (M)1,793.011,877.151,964.48
Shares Outstanding (M)199.46199.46199.46
Fair Value$8.99$9.41$9.85
Upside / Downside-40.07%-37.26%-34.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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