DDM Analysis: 002164.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.47 - $0.63	$0.55
Multi-Stage	$0.91 - $1.01	$0.96
Blended Fair Value	$0.76
Current Price	$14.76
Upside	-94.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-15.67%	-16.52%	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.44	0.14	0.00	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-49.13%	-12.47%	-8.02%	0.31%	3.79%	-93.84%	209.82%	0.00%	-100.00%	85.87%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.14%	0.45%	0.43%	0.56%	0.35%	0.80%	11.09%	1.78%	0.00%	1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	61.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)	56.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.33	7.71	4.62
Cash Retained (M)	56.42	56.42	56.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.33	-7.71	-4.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	44.09	48.71	51.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	527.48	527.48	527.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	9.20%	9.20%	9.20%
Growth Rate	-8.84%	-7.84%	-6.84%
Fair Value	$0.47	$0.55	$0.63
Upside / Downside	-96.80%	-96.25%	-95.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	61.65	56.82	52.36	48.26	44.48	40.99	42.22
Payout Ratio	8.48%	24.78%	41.09%	57.39%	73.70%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.23	14.08	21.51	27.70	32.78	36.89	39.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.20%	9.20%	9.20%
Growth Rate	-8.84%	-7.84%	-6.84%
Year 1 PV (M)	12.76	12.90	13.04
Year 2 PV (M)	17.65	18.04	18.44
Year 3 PV (M)	20.59	21.27	21.97
Year 4 PV (M)	22.07	23.05	24.07
Year 5 PV (M)	22.50	23.76	25.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	384.35	405.90	428.40
Equity Value (M)	479.91	504.92	530.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	527.48	527.48	527.48
Fair Value	$0.91	$0.96	$1.01
Upside / Downside	-93.84%	-93.51%	-93.18%

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Ningbo Donly Co.,Ltd (002164.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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