Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Dun'an Artificial Environment Co., Ltd (002011.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.98 - $37.82$26.34
Multi-Stage$15.24 - $16.68$15.95
Blended Fair Value$21.14
Current Price$14.23
Upside48.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.64%-17.40%0.050.050.100.130.180.190.220.260.000.22
YoY Growth---9.23%-48.60%-24.24%-25.47%-7.71%-14.35%-14.87%0.00%-100.00%-31.38%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.41%0.78%1.41%4.30%4.38%3.78%3.57%0.00%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,164.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,137.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)232.93145.5887.35
Cash Retained (M)1,137.611,137.611,137.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-232.93-145.58-87.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)904.68992.021,050.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,051.111,051.111,051.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.860.941.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.860.941.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate4.74%5.74%6.74%
Fair Value$18.98$26.34$37.82
Upside / Downside33.36%85.09%165.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,164.651,231.551,302.281,377.081,456.181,539.821,586.01
Payout Ratio2.32%19.86%37.39%54.93%72.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.05244.56486.97756.421,055.211,385.841,467.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate4.74%5.74%6.74%
Year 1 PV (M)220.95223.06225.17
Year 2 PV (M)397.50405.13412.83
Year 3 PV (M)557.85573.98590.42
Year 4 PV (M)703.10730.34758.36
Year 5 PV (M)834.28874.87917.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,308.5913,956.1314,628.64
Equity Value (M)16,022.2816,763.5217,532.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,051.111,051.111,051.11
Fair Value$15.24$15.95$16.68
Upside / Downside7.12%12.08%17.22%

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