Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. (000807.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242.78 - $286.03$268.06
Multi-Stage$111.87 - $122.75$117.20
Blended Fair Value$192.63
Current Price$20.60
Upside835.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.50%6.05%0.490.200.170.130.170.240.260.200.200.24
YoY Growth--143.69%15.24%29.41%-23.53%-26.05%-7.43%27.48%-1.04%-16.88%-9.83%
Dividend Yield--2.80%1.41%1.27%0.98%1.81%6.11%4.75%2.61%2.77%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,989.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)682.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,307.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)997.98623.74374.24
Cash Retained (M)4,307.494,307.494,307.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-997.98-623.74-374.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,309.503,683.753,933.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,469.413,469.413,469.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.061.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.061.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.33
WACC / Discount Rate4.35%4.35%4.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$242.78$268.06$286.03
Upside / Downside1,078.54%1,201.24%1,288.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,989.915,314.265,659.686,027.566,419.366,836.617,041.71
Payout Ratio13.68%28.94%44.21%59.47%74.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)682.431,537.992,501.903,584.624,797.526,152.956,513.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.35%4.35%4.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,460.071,473.911,487.75
Year 2 PV (M)2,254.812,297.762,341.11
Year 3 PV (M)3,066.933,154.973,244.68
Year 4 PV (M)3,896.704,046.564,200.70
Year 5 PV (M)4,744.434,973.595,211.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)372,682.76390,683.47409,373.12
Equity Value (M)388,105.71406,630.27425,858.88
Shares Outstanding (M)3,469.413,469.413,469.41
Fair Value$111.87$117.20$122.75
Upside / Downside443.03%468.95%495.86%

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