DDM Analysis: 000686.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.56 - $8.44	$6.92
Multi-Stage	$12.06 - $13.26	$12.65
Blended Fair Value	$9.78
Current Price	$8.67
Upside	12.82%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-28.44%	-0.13%	0.10	0.45	0.47	0.53	0.57	0.54	0.52	0.61	0.22	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-77.46%	-3.34%	-10.86%	-7.83%	4.86%	3.87%	-14.31%	171.97%	237.23%	-35.54%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.30%	6.53%	6.91%	6.79%	6.61%	6.56%	5.07%	7.77%	1.88%	0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,466.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	900.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)	566.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	293.33	183.33	110.00
Cash Retained (M)	566.00	566.00	566.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-293.33	-183.33	-110.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)	272.67	382.67	456.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,294.07	2,294.07	2,294.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.17	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.39	0.39	0.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.17	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.51	0.56	0.59
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-2.13%	-1.13%	-0.13%
Fair Value	$5.56	$6.92	$8.44
Upside / Downside	-35.82%	-20.21%	-2.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,466.65	1,450.14	1,433.82	1,417.69	1,401.74	1,385.96	1,427.54
Payout Ratio	61.41%	67.13%	72.85%	78.56%	84.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	900.65	973.44	1,044.47	1,113.79	1,181.41	1,247.37	1,320.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-2.13%	-1.13%	-0.13%
Year 1 PV (M)	901.64	910.86	920.07
Year 2 PV (M)	896.09	914.50	933.09
Year 3 PV (M)	885.08	912.49	940.46
Year 4 PV (M)	869.58	905.67	942.87
Year 5 PV (M)	850.42	894.76	940.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	23,259.73	24,472.50	25,735.34
Equity Value (M)	27,662.55	29,010.77	30,412.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,294.07	2,294.07	2,294.07
Fair Value	$12.06	$12.65	$13.26
Upside / Downside	39.08%	45.86%	52.91%

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Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. (000686.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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