DDM Analysis: 000570.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.23 - $0.35	$0.28
Multi-Stage	$0.28 - $0.31	$0.30
Blended Fair Value	$0.29
Current Price	$5.57
Upside	-94.78%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.78%	11.88%	0.05	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	360.97%	-61.50%	994.40%	-47.18%	-82.99%	-1.64%	6.28%	32.56%	22.16%	4.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.86%	0.19%	0.51%	0.05%	0.08%	0.63%	0.48%	0.50%	0.23%	0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	16.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.32	2.08	1.25
Cash Retained (M)	9.56	9.56	9.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.32	-2.08	-1.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6.24	7.48	8.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	705.43	705.43	705.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.02	0.02	0.02
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	1.38%	2.38%	3.38%
Fair Value	$0.23	$0.28	$0.35
Upside / Downside	-95.94%	-94.92%	-93.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	16.62	17.02	17.42	17.84	18.26	18.70	19.26
Payout Ratio	42.48%	51.98%	61.49%	70.99%	80.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7.06	8.85	10.71	12.66	14.70	16.83	17.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	1.38%	2.38%	3.38%
Year 1 PV (M)	7.97	8.05	8.13
Year 2 PV (M)	8.71	8.88	9.05
Year 3 PV (M)	9.28	9.56	9.84
Year 4 PV (M)	9.71	10.10	10.50
Year 5 PV (M)	10.02	10.53	11.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	155.24	163.05	171.17
Equity Value (M)	200.94	210.17	219.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	705.43	705.43	705.43
Fair Value	$0.28	$0.30	$0.31
Upside / Downside	-94.89%	-94.65%	-94.41%

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Changchai Company, Limited (000570.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener