Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. (000429.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.99 - $10.54$8.66
Multi-Stage$19.72 - $21.79$20.73
Blended Fair Value$14.70
Current Price$10.89
Upside34.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.24%11.07%0.660.550.680.430.570.780.640.470.270.28
YoY Growth--20.17%-19.44%57.63%-24.51%-26.39%22.39%34.65%77.68%-5.81%22.16%
Dividend Yield--4.66%5.52%9.04%5.45%7.64%11.52%6.99%5.93%3.53%5.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,750.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)171.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,578.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)350.18218.86131.32
Cash Retained (M)1,578.941,578.941,578.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-350.18-218.86-131.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,228.761,360.081,447.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,105.862,105.862,105.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate-3.40%-2.40%-1.40%
Fair Value$6.99$8.66$10.54
Upside / Downside-35.83%-20.44%-3.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,750.891,708.931,667.971,628.001,588.981,550.901,597.43
Payout Ratio9.82%25.86%41.89%57.93%73.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)171.95441.87698.76943.071,175.281,395.811,477.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate-3.40%-2.40%-1.40%
Year 1 PV (M)413.38417.65421.93
Year 2 PV (M)611.53624.26637.12
Year 3 PV (M)772.12796.35821.08
Year 4 PV (M)900.18938.03977.07
Year 5 PV (M)1,000.141,052.991,108.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,830.3739,829.3641,911.97
Equity Value (M)41,527.7343,658.6545,877.22
Shares Outstanding (M)2,105.862,105.862,105.86
Fair Value$19.72$20.73$21.79
Upside / Downside81.08%90.38%100.05%

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