Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co., Ltd. (000061.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.75 - $39.23$36.77
Multi-Stage$6.20 - $6.78$6.48
Blended Fair Value$21.63
Current Price$8.02
Upside169.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.99%15.26%0.210.040.070.060.060.180.050.050.050.05
YoY Growth--417.36%-42.86%16.67%0.00%-66.41%257.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.29%0.67%1.22%0.97%1.02%2.47%0.76%0.69%0.45%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)334.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)240.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.9541.8425.11
Cash Retained (M)94.1494.1494.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.95-41.84-25.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.2052.3069.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,696.731,696.731,696.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.75$36.77$39.23
Upside / Downside146.23%358.47%389.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)334.74356.50379.67404.35430.63458.62472.38
Payout Ratio71.88%75.50%79.13%82.75%86.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)240.60269.16300.42334.60371.96412.76436.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)250.73253.10255.48
Year 2 PV (M)260.68265.65270.66
Year 3 PV (M)270.46278.23286.14
Year 4 PV (M)280.07290.84301.92
Year 5 PV (M)289.51303.49318.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,167.309,610.0910,069.82
Equity Value (M)10,518.7511,001.4011,502.02
Shares Outstanding (M)1,696.731,696.731,696.73
Fair Value$6.20$6.48$6.78
Upside / Downside-22.70%-19.15%-15.47%

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