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Definitive Analysis

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PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk (UCID.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$199.20 - $308.17$249.73
Multi-Stage$465.76 - $511.99$488.42
Blended Fair Value$369.08
Current Price$500.00
Upside-26.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%20.9115.0922.8615.0019.190.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--38.54%-33.98%52.43%-21.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.32%1.68%1.90%1.07%1.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88,993.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70,088.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,905.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17,798.6011,124.136,674.48
Cash Retained (M)18,905.0018,905.0018,905.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-17,798.60-11,124.13-6,674.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,106.407,780.8812,230.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,156.574,156.574,156.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.271.872.94
LTM Dividend per Share16.8616.8616.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.271.872.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.1318.7319.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$199.20$249.73$308.17
Upside / Downside-60.16%-50.05%-38.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88,993.0088,103.0787,222.0486,349.8285,486.3284,631.4687,170.40
Payout Ratio78.76%81.01%83.25%85.50%87.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70,088.0071,368.2572,615.8873,831.4375,015.4076,168.3180,632.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)66,381.3667,058.7267,736.08
Year 2 PV (M)62,822.2964,110.9265,412.63
Year 3 PV (M)59,410.6861,247.9963,122.81
Year 4 PV (M)56,145.4858,472.4460,871.00
Year 5 PV (M)53,024.8955,786.0158,660.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,638,192.171,723,496.641,812,318.26
Equity Value (M)1,935,976.862,030,172.732,128,121.77
Shares Outstanding (M)4,156.574,156.574,156.57
Fair Value$465.76$488.42$511.99
Upside / Downside-6.85%-2.32%2.40%

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