Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Target Healthcare REIT PLC (THRL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Healthcare FacilitiesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.62 - $2.36$1.97
Multi-Stage$2.81 - $3.08$2.94
Blended Fair Value$2.46
Current Price$0.84
Upside192.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.060.060.060.050.050.040.030.030.02
YoY Growth---100.00%-12.49%1.23%26.33%8.03%23.37%36.16%11.32%61.03%36.85%
Dividend Yield--0.00%7.25%9.04%5.94%4.42%4.27%3.28%2.52%2.15%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.7716.7310.04
Cash Retained (M)80.6780.6780.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.77-16.73-10.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.9063.9470.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)620.24620.24620.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.62$1.97$2.36
Upside / Downside92.33%134.93%180.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.87132.53131.21129.89128.59127.31131.13
Payout Ratio39.74%49.79%59.84%69.89%79.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.2065.9978.5290.79102.81114.58121.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)60.2260.8361.45
Year 2 PV (M)65.3966.7368.08
Year 3 PV (M)69.0071.1373.31
Year 4 PV (M)71.3074.2577.30
Year 5 PV (M)72.5176.2980.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,402.301,475.321,551.36
Equity Value (M)1,740.721,824.561,911.71
Shares Outstanding (M)620.24620.24620.24
Fair Value$2.81$2.94$3.08
Upside / Downside234.11%250.20%266.93%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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