Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$316.88 - $1,450.78$720.91
Multi-Stage$164.59 - $180.09$172.20
Blended Fair Value$446.55
Current Price$200.58
Upside122.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020202019201820172016
DPS8.05%6.50%1.601.501.401.201.161.091.030.970.930.89
YoY Growth--6.77%7.23%16.75%3.47%6.48%5.92%5.24%4.43%4.56%4.76%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.22%1.08%0.85%1.07%0.90%0.83%1.27%1.08%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)480.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)364.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.0260.0136.01
Cash Retained (M)364.87364.87364.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.02-60.01-36.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.86304.86328.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.8165.8165.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.094.635.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.094.635.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.846.386.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$316.88$720.91$1,450.78
Upside / Downside57.98%259.41%623.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)480.08511.28544.52579.91617.61657.75677.48
Payout Ratio24.00%37.20%50.40%63.60%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.21190.19274.43368.82474.32591.97626.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)175.35177.01178.67
Year 2 PV (M)233.28237.72242.21
Year 3 PV (M)289.06297.36305.81
Year 4 PV (M)342.74355.92369.48
Year 5 PV (M)394.39413.44433.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,397.019,850.8910,322.14
Equity Value (M)10,831.8311,332.3411,851.53
Shares Outstanding (M)65.8165.8165.81
Fair Value$164.59$172.20$180.09
Upside / Downside-17.94%-14.15%-10.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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