Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NOBA Bank Group AB (NOBA.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.22 - $85.95$72.18
Multi-Stage$96.51 - $106.21$101.26
Blended Fair Value$86.72
Current Price$94.00
Upside-7.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.400.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,028.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,825.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)605.60378.50227.10
Cash Retained (M)2,825.002,825.002,825.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-605.60-378.50-227.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,219.402,446.502,597.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)375.05375.05375.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.926.526.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.926.526.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.467.067.47
WACC / Discount Rate8.69%8.69%8.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$59.22$72.18$85.95
Upside / Downside-37.00%-23.21%-8.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,028.002,997.722,967.742,938.072,908.682,879.602,965.99
Payout Ratio6.70%23.36%40.02%56.68%73.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.00700.371,187.761,665.342,133.252,591.642,743.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.69%8.69%8.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)637.87644.38650.88
Year 2 PV (M)985.241,005.451,025.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,258.121,297.021,336.73
Year 4 PV (M)1,467.791,528.631,591.33
Year 5 PV (M)1,624.061,708.631,796.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,220.8831,794.5533,433.11
Equity Value (M)36,193.9537,978.6539,834.59
Shares Outstanding (M)375.05375.05375.05
Fair Value$96.51$101.26$106.21
Upside / Downside2.67%7.73%12.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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