DDM Analysis: MPE.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$62.15 - $134.35	$88.82
Multi-Stage	$46.31 - $50.52	$48.38
Blended Fair Value	$68.60
Current Price	$15.52
Upside	342.02%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.20%	19.46%	0.61	0.53	0.54	0.39	0.23	0.23	0.24	0.38	0.18	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	14.73%	-1.09%	38.84%	69.57%	-2.09%	-2.84%	-36.36%	103.99%	88.21%	-4.65%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.88%	5.56%	5.46%	3.41%	2.52%	2.41%	2.76%	3.61%	2.35%	1.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	172.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	66.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	105.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.48	21.55	12.93
Cash Retained (M)	105.50	105.50	105.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.48	-21.55	-12.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	71.02	83.95	92.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	53.27	53.27	53.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.33	1.58	1.74
LTM Dividend per Share	1.26	1.26	1.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.33	1.58	1.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.59	2.83	2.99
WACC / Discount Rate	9.90%	9.90%	9.90%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$62.15	$88.82	$134.35
Upside / Downside	300.42%	472.32%	765.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	172.41	183.61	195.55	208.26	221.79	236.21	243.30
Payout Ratio	38.81%	49.04%	59.28%	69.52%	79.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	66.90	90.05	115.93	144.79	176.91	212.59	225.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.90%	9.90%	9.90%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	81.17	81.94	82.71
Year 2 PV (M)	94.20	95.99	97.80
Year 3 PV (M)	106.05	109.09	112.19
Year 4 PV (M)	116.80	121.29	125.91
Year 5 PV (M)	126.52	132.63	138.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,942.38	2,036.20	2,133.61
Equity Value (M)	2,467.11	2,577.14	2,691.20
Shares Outstanding (M)	53.27	53.27	53.27
Fair Value	$46.31	$48.38	$50.52
Upside / Downside	198.41%	211.72%	225.51%

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M.P. Evans Group PLC (MPE.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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