DDM Analysis: L3H.F

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$23.23 - $32.63	$27.90
Multi-Stage	$62.67 - $69.13	$65.83
Blended Fair Value	$46.86
Current Price	$70.99
Upside	-33.98%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.62%	-0.85%	2.30	2.22	1.96	1.66	1.97	4.03	4.15	2.88	2.56	2.48
YoY Growth	-	-	3.28%	13.34%	18.42%	-15.77%	-51.15%	-3.04%	44.11%	12.40%	3.28%	-0.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.12%	3.21%	3.41%	3.02%	5.02%	11.63%	6.55%	4.54%	4.87%	5.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,599.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8,504.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,094.93

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,919.81	1,824.88	1,094.93
Cash Retained (M)	6,094.93	6,094.93	6,094.93
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,919.81	-1,824.88	-1,094.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,175.13	4,270.05	5,000.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,775.19	3,775.19	3,775.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.84	1.13	1.32
LTM Dividend per Share	2.25	2.25	2.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.84	1.13	1.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.09	3.38	3.58
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	-5.79%	-4.79%	-3.79%
Fair Value	$23.23	$27.90	$32.63
Upside / Downside	-67.28%	-60.70%	-54.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,599.04	13,899.94	13,234.31	12,600.57	11,997.17	11,422.66	11,765.34
Payout Ratio	58.25%	64.60%	70.95%	77.30%	83.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8,504.10	8,979.48	9,389.84	9,740.29	10,035.66	10,280.39	10,882.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	-5.79%	-4.79%	-3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)	8,322.61	8,410.95	8,499.29
Year 2 PV (M)	8,066.30	8,238.44	8,412.41
Year 3 PV (M)	7,755.26	8,004.84	8,259.72
Year 4 PV (M)	7,405.90	7,725.38	8,055.09
Year 5 PV (M)	7,031.54	7,412.72	7,810.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	197,997.42	208,731.03	219,925.18
Equity Value (M)	236,579.02	248,523.37	260,961.95
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,775.19	3,775.19	3,775.19
Fair Value	$62.67	$65.83	$69.13
Upside / Downside	-11.72%	-7.27%	-2.63%

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EXPD	Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.	0.99%	$1.50	24.32%
LISOX	Lazard International Strategic Equity Ptf Open Shares	0.99%	$0.13	36.87%
MXC	Mexco Energy Corporation	0.99%	$0.10	12.25%
NIC	Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.	0.99%	$1.19	12.58%
PAYC	Paycom Software, Inc.	0.99%	$1.51	18.80%
RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
CNK	Cinemark Holdings, Inc.	0.97%	$0.23	18.28%
ECL	Ecolab Inc.	0.97%	$2.54	36.57%
EVR	Evercore Inc.	0.97%	$3.41	27.02%
LSBK	Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc.	0.96%	$0.14	24.34%
0ITL.L	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	0.95%	$2.42	39.43%
0IZI.L	W.W. Grainger, Inc.	0.95%	$9.52	26.47%
0L5V.L	The Sherwin-Williams Company	0.95%	$3.11	30.09%
0R2S.L	Stryker Corporation	0.95%	$3.28	43.09%
RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
IMKTA	Ingles Markets, Incorporated	0.93%	$0.65	14.68%
ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
BGC	BGC Group, Inc	0.90%	$0.08	23.56%
CDRE	Cadre Holdings, Inc.	0.90%	$0.37	33.35%
MBNKP	Medallion Bank	0.90%	$0.23	12.50%
JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
RMD	ResMed Inc.	0.89%	$2.18	22.31%
VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
0I14.L	Cognex Corporation	0.88%	$0.32	49.16%
AR	Antero Resources Corporation	0.88%	$0.30	17.15%
LDOS	Leidos Holdings, Inc.	0.88%	$1.61	14.88%
LMAT	LeMaitre Vascular, Inc.	0.88%	$0.70	32.20%
NNI	Nelnet, Inc.	0.88%	$1.14	9.52%
PFSI	PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.	0.88%	$1.16	12.49%
SMBK	SmartFinancial, Inc.	0.88%	$0.32	11.76%
BYD	Boyd Gaming Corporation	0.87%	$0.75	3.22%
ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
BCO	The Brink's Company	0.86%	$1.00	24.81%
HXL	Hexcel Corporation	0.86%	$0.66	77.18%

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Shell plc (L3H.F)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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