DDM Analysis: HWX.TO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$39.78 - $143.96	$125.92
Multi-Stage	$18.56 - $20.29	$19.41
Blended Fair Value	$72.67
Current Price	$6.73
Upside	979.73%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.40	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.81%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.16%	5.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	172.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	99.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	72.95

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.56	21.60	12.96
Cash Retained (M)	72.95	72.95	72.95
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.56	-21.60	-12.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)	38.39	51.35	59.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	238.72	238.72	238.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.22	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.42	0.42	0.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.22	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.58	0.63	0.67
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$39.78	$125.92	$143.96
Upside / Downside	491.13%	1,771.00%	2,039.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	172.80	184.04	196.00	208.74	222.31	236.76	243.86
Payout Ratio	57.78%	64.23%	70.67%	77.11%	83.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	99.85	118.20	138.51	160.97	185.75	213.08	225.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	109.39	110.43	111.47
Year 2 PV (M)	118.64	120.90	123.18
Year 3 PV (M)	127.60	131.26	135.00
Year 4 PV (M)	136.28	141.52	146.91
Year 5 PV (M)	144.68	151.67	158.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,795.15	3,978.46	4,168.78
Equity Value (M)	4,431.75	4,634.24	4,844.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	238.72	238.72	238.72
Fair Value	$18.56	$19.41	$20.29
Upside / Downside	175.85%	188.45%	201.53%

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Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX.TO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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