Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $27.71 - $40.68 | $33.95 |
| Multi-Stage | $41.56 - $45.68 | $43.58 |
| Blended Fair Value | $38.77 | |
| Current Price | $196.23 | |
| Upside | -80.24% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 13.42% | -4.00% | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 50.70% | 69.05% | 147.06% | 54.55% | -80.70% | -52.10% | -26.54% | -28.95% | 2.24% | 38.51% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.20% | 0.26% | 0.24% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.87% | 1.49% | 1.73% | 2.13% | 2.65% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,450.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 163.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,287.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 290.00 | 181.25 | 108.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,287.00 | 1,287.00 | 1,287.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -290.00 | -181.25 | -108.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 997.00 | 1,105.75 | 1,178.25 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 406.75 | 406.75 | 406.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.45 | 2.72 | 2.90 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.45 | 2.72 | 2.90 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.85 | 3.12 | 3.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -1.08% | -0.08% | 0.92% |
| Fair Value | $27.71 | $33.95 | $40.68 |
| Upside / Downside | -85.88% | -82.70% | -79.27% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,450.00 | 1,448.82 | 1,447.64 | 1,446.46 | 1,445.28 | 1,444.10 | 1,487.42 |
| Payout Ratio | 11.24% | 26.99% | 42.74% | 58.50% | 74.25% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 163.00 | 391.08 | 618.79 | 846.13 | 1,073.09 | 1,299.69 | 1,375.86 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -1.08% | -0.08% | 0.92% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 354.88 | 358.47 | 362.06 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 509.53 | 519.89 | 530.35 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 632.24 | 651.61 | 671.37 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 727.61 | 757.48 | 788.26 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 799.67 | 840.92 | 883.85 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 13,882.32 | 14,598.36 | 15,343.64 |
| Equity Value (M) | 16,906.25 | 17,726.72 | 18,579.52 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 406.75 | 406.75 | 406.75 |
| Fair Value | $41.56 | $43.58 | $45.68 |
| Upside / Downside | -78.82% | -77.79% | -76.72% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPD | Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.50 | 24.32% |
| LISOX | Lazard International Strategic Equity Ptf Open Shares | 0.99% | $0.13 | 36.87% |
| MXC | Mexco Energy Corporation | 0.99% | $0.10 | 12.25% |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.19 | 12.58% |
| PAYC | Paycom Software, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.51 | 18.80% |
| RRC | Range Resources Corporation | 0.99% | $0.35 | 14.60% |
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance Corporation | 0.99% | $1.32 | 7.58% |
| WOR | Worthington Industries, Inc. | 0.99% | $0.52 | 23.95% |
| CNXN | PC Connection, Inc. | 0.98% | $0.56 | 16.89% |
| CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | 0.97% | $5.78 | 29.40% |
| CNK | Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | 0.97% | $0.23 | 18.28% |
| ECL | Ecolab Inc. | 0.97% | $2.54 | 36.57% |
| EVR | Evercore Inc. | 0.97% | $3.41 | 27.02% |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc. | 0.96% | $0.14 | 24.34% |
| 0ITL.L | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 0.95% | $2.42 | 39.43% |
| 0IZI.L | W.W. Grainger, Inc. | 0.95% | $9.52 | 26.47% |
| 0L5V.L | The Sherwin-Williams Company | 0.95% | $3.11 | 30.09% |
| 0R2S.L | Stryker Corporation | 0.95% | $3.28 | 43.09% |
| RRX | Regal Rexnord Corporation | 0.95% | $1.39 | 36.07% |
| WT | WisdomTree, Inc. | 0.95% | $0.12 | 18.12% |
| J | Jacobs Solutions Inc. | 0.94% | $1.27 | 53.80% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | 0.94% | $1.84 | 34.81% |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. | 0.94% | $0.17 | 19.22% |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets, Incorporated | 0.93% | $0.65 | 14.68% |
| ODC | Oil-Dri Corporation of America | 0.93% | $0.45 | 12.28% |
| PENG | Penguin Solutions, Inc. | 0.93% | $0.19 | 40.17% |
| SSBK | Southern States Bancshares, Inc. | 0.93% | $0.34 | 9.19% |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | 0.92% | $0.63 | 8.94% |
| HIFS | Hingham Institution for Savings | 0.92% | $2.49 | 12.15% |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corporation | 0.92% | $3.34 | 24.37% |
| OPY | Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. | 0.91% | $0.66 | 8.90% |
| BGC | BGC Group, Inc | 0.90% | $0.08 | 23.56% |
| CDRE | Cadre Holdings, Inc. | 0.90% | $0.37 | 33.35% |
| MBNKP | Medallion Bank | 0.90% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| JBHT | J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 0.89% | $1.75 | 30.14% |
| NYT | The New York Times Company | 0.89% | $0.62 | 30.32% |
| RMD | ResMed Inc. | 0.89% | $2.18 | 22.31% |
| VBFC | Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. | 0.89% | $0.72 | 15.35% |
| 0I14.L | Cognex Corporation | 0.88% | $0.32 | 49.16% |
| AR | Antero Resources Corporation | 0.88% | $0.30 | 17.15% |
| LDOS | Leidos Holdings, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.61 | 14.88% |
| LMAT | LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. | 0.88% | $0.70 | 32.20% |
| NNI | Nelnet, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.14 | 9.52% |
| PFSI | PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.16 | 12.49% |
| SMBK | SmartFinancial, Inc. | 0.88% | $0.32 | 11.76% |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming Corporation | 0.87% | $0.75 | 3.22% |
| ROST | Ross Stores, Inc. | 0.87% | $1.59 | 24.85% |
| BBSI | Barrett Business Services, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.31 | 15.02% |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | 0.86% | $1.00 | 24.81% |
| HXL | Hexcel Corporation | 0.86% | $0.66 | 77.18% |