DDM Analysis: ERF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$30.83 - $61.57	$42.82
Multi-Stage	$26.61 - $29.12	$27.84
Blended Fair Value	$35.33
Current Price	$19.62
Upside	80.08%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	10.67%	-11.80%	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.09	0.10	0.14	0.11	0.12	0.45	0.93
YoY Growth	-	-	16.84%	28.85%	62.26%	-6.73%	-27.15%	26.90%	-12.48%	-72.27%	-52.28%	16.77%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.16%	1.35%	1.19%	1.48%	4.81%	1.19%	0.74%	1.15%	8.72%	7.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	384.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	49.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	334.84

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	76.95	48.09	28.85
Cash Retained (M)	334.84	334.84	334.84
(-) Cash Required (M)	-76.95	-48.09	-28.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	257.89	286.75	305.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	213.40	213.40	213.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.21	1.34	1.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.23	0.23	0.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.21	1.34	1.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.44	1.58	1.67
WACC / Discount Rate	9.19%	9.19%	9.19%
Growth Rate	4.31%	5.31%	6.31%
Fair Value	$30.83	$42.82	$61.57
Upside / Downside	57.14%	118.25%	213.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	384.73	405.17	426.70	449.38	473.26	498.41	513.36
Payout Ratio	12.97%	28.37%	43.78%	59.19%	74.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	49.89	114.96	186.81	265.97	353.02	448.57	474.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.19%	9.19%	9.19%
Growth Rate	4.31%	5.31%	6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)	104.28	105.28	106.28
Year 2 PV (M)	153.72	156.68	159.67
Year 3 PV (M)	198.52	204.29	210.16
Year 4 PV (M)	239.02	248.32	257.88
Year 5 PV (M)	275.50	288.96	302.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,708.57	4,938.63	5,177.60
Equity Value (M)	5,679.61	5,942.15	6,214.53
Shares Outstanding (M)	213.40	213.40	213.40
Fair Value	$26.61	$27.84	$29.12
Upside / Downside	35.65%	41.92%	48.42%

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RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
CNK	Cinemark Holdings, Inc.	0.97%	$0.23	18.28%
ECL	Ecolab Inc.	0.97%	$2.54	36.57%
EVR	Evercore Inc.	0.97%	$3.41	27.02%
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0L5V.L	The Sherwin-Williams Company	0.95%	$3.11	30.09%
0R2S.L	Stryker Corporation	0.95%	$3.28	43.09%
RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
IMKTA	Ingles Markets, Incorporated	0.93%	$0.65	14.68%
ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
BGC	BGC Group, Inc	0.90%	$0.08	23.56%
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JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
RMD	ResMed Inc.	0.89%	$2.18	22.31%
VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
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ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
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Enerplus Corporation (ERF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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