DDM Analysis: EREGL.IS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.53 - $52.92	$28.97
Multi-Stage	$12.57 - $13.72	$13.14
Blended Fair Value	$21.05
Current Price	$29.40
Upside	-28.39%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-18.53%	8.24%	0.26	0.00	2.31	1.00	0.12	0.72	0.44	0.22	0.15	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	130.35%	736.64%	-83.31%	64.21%	101.73%	40.75%	-22.72%	70.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.14%	0.00%	13.08%	6.20%	1.57%	19.15%	9.72%	4.15%	5.23%	9.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,077.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,717.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,360.51

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,015.60	634.75	380.85
Cash Retained (M)	3,360.51	3,360.51	3,360.51
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,015.60	-634.75	-380.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,344.92	2,725.77	2,979.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,790.95	6,790.95	6,790.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.44
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.60	0.65	0.69
WACC / Discount Rate	8.90%	8.90%	8.90%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$18.53	$28.97	$52.92
Upside / Downside	-36.96%	-1.45%	80.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,077.98	5,408.05	5,759.57	6,133.94	6,532.65	6,957.27	7,165.99
Payout Ratio	33.82%	45.06%	56.29%	67.53%	78.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,717.47	2,436.73	3,242.24	4,142.17	5,145.40	6,261.54	6,628.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.90%	8.90%	8.90%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,216.47	2,237.48	2,258.49
Year 2 PV (M)	2,682.60	2,733.69	2,785.27
Year 3 PV (M)	3,117.41	3,206.90	3,298.08
Year 4 PV (M)	3,522.41	3,657.87	3,797.20
Year 5 PV (M)	3,899.04	4,087.36	4,282.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	69,899.79	73,275.98	76,781.38
Equity Value (M)	85,337.72	89,199.29	93,203.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,790.95	6,790.95	6,790.95
Fair Value	$12.57	$13.14	$13.72
Upside / Downside	-57.26%	-55.32%	-53.32%

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Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S. (EREGL.IS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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