DDM Analysis: CVE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$115.19 - $341.52	$320.05
Multi-Stage	$46.94 - $51.36	$49.11
Blended Fair Value	$184.58
Current Price	$23.65
Upside	680.47%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	42.09%	6.46%	0.82	0.54	0.49	0.10	0.04	0.14	0.13	0.12	0.09	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	52.12%	9.88%	411.93%	128.57%	-70.38%	6.12%	8.89%	35.54%	-68.56%	-34.41%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.11%	1.99%	2.09%	0.46%	0.45%	5.00%	1.10%	1.14%	0.60%	1.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,142.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,381.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,761.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	628.40	392.75	235.65
Cash Retained (M)	1,761.00	1,761.00	1,761.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-628.40	-392.75	-235.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,132.60	1,368.25	1,525.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,829.66	1,829.66	1,829.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.62	0.75	0.83
LTM Dividend per Share	0.75	0.75	0.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.62	0.75	0.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.37	1.50	1.59
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$115.19	$320.05	$341.52
Upside / Downside	387.08%	1,253.30%	1,344.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,142.00	3,346.23	3,563.73	3,795.38	4,042.08	4,304.81	4,433.96
Payout Ratio	43.95%	53.16%	62.37%	71.58%	80.79%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,381.00	1,778.93	2,222.76	2,716.78	3,265.62	3,874.33	4,101.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,650.67	1,666.32	1,681.97
Year 2 PV (M)	1,913.80	1,950.25	1,987.05
Year 3 PV (M)	2,170.49	2,232.80	2,296.29
Year 4 PV (M)	2,420.87	2,513.97	2,609.73
Year 5 PV (M)	2,665.05	2,793.77	2,927.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	75,069.18	78,695.05	82,459.69
Equity Value (M)	85,890.06	89,852.16	93,962.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,829.66	1,829.66	1,829.66
Fair Value	$46.94	$49.11	$51.36
Upside / Downside	98.49%	107.65%	117.15%

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Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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