Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Caisse Régionale de Crédit Agricole Mutuel Nord de France Société coopérative (CNDF.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.19 - $97.27$79.75
Multi-Stage$128.76 - $141.86$135.18
Blended Fair Value$107.47
Current Price$14.54
Upside639.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.890.731.040.990.950.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--22.72%-30.49%5.20%4.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.13%5.76%6.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)265.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9238.7023.22
Cash Retained (M)265.67265.67265.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.92-38.70-23.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)203.75226.97242.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.8741.8741.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.875.425.79
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.875.425.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.926.476.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$64.19$79.75$97.27
Upside / Downside341.45%448.50%568.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.60306.50303.44300.40297.40294.42303.26
Payout Ratio14.19%29.35%44.51%59.67%74.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.9289.96135.07179.26222.56264.98280.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)83.2084.0584.90
Year 2 PV (M)115.53117.90120.30
Year 3 PV (M)141.82146.20150.68
Year 4 PV (M)162.85169.59176.55
Year 5 PV (M)179.31188.65198.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,708.574,953.755,209.05
Equity Value (M)5,391.285,660.155,939.85
Shares Outstanding (M)41.8741.8741.87
Fair Value$128.76$135.18$141.86
Upside / Downside785.56%829.73%875.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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