DDM Analysis: CJA.F

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$56.24 - $130.97	$82.47
Multi-Stage	$39.87 - $43.56	$41.68
Blended Fair Value	$62.08
Current Price	$39.72
Upside	56.29%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	18.56%	19.25%	0.53	0.48	0.40	0.35	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.17	0.15	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	11.55%	19.94%	14.42%	23.03%	24.39%	18.97%	11.64%	11.77%	39.58%	19.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.33%	1.26%	1.04%	0.97%	0.71%	0.65%	0.62%	0.74%	0.64%	0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,572.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	517.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,054.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	514.42	321.51	192.91
Cash Retained (M)	2,054.40	2,054.40	2,054.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-514.42	-321.51	-192.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,539.98	1,732.89	1,861.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	953.45	953.45	953.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.62	1.82	1.95
LTM Dividend per Share	0.54	0.54	0.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.62	1.82	1.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.16	2.36	2.50
WACC / Discount Rate	9.55%	9.55%	9.55%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$56.24	$82.47	$130.97
Upside / Downside	41.60%	107.63%	229.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,572.10	2,739.29	2,917.34	3,106.97	3,308.92	3,524.00	3,629.72
Payout Ratio	20.13%	34.10%	48.08%	62.05%	76.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	517.70	934.15	1,402.56	1,927.90	2,515.62	3,171.60	3,357.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.55%	9.55%	9.55%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	844.72	852.73	860.74
Year 2 PV (M)	1,146.87	1,168.72	1,190.77
Year 3 PV (M)	1,425.53	1,466.46	1,508.15
Year 4 PV (M)	1,682.04	1,746.72	1,813.26
Year 5 PV (M)	1,917.63	2,010.25	2,106.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	31,001.05	32,498.41	34,053.08
Equity Value (M)	38,017.84	39,743.29	41,532.41
Shares Outstanding (M)	953.45	953.45	953.45
Fair Value	$39.87	$41.68	$43.56
Upside / Downside	0.39%	4.94%	9.67%

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Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (CJA.F)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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