Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (CENTEL-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.09 - $23.11$18.11
Multi-Stage$23.09 - $25.34$24.19
Blended Fair Value$21.15
Current Price$30.00
Upside-29.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.36%0.49%0.420.000.000.000.000.650.600.550.500.40
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%8.34%9.09%10.02%24.98%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.22%1.32%1.12%1.41%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,685.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)796.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)889.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)337.12210.70126.42
Cash Retained (M)889.10889.10889.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-337.12-210.70-126.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)551.98678.40762.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.500.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.500.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Fair Value$14.09$18.11$23.11
Upside / Downside-53.05%-39.65%-22.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,685.601,706.481,727.621,749.031,770.691,792.631,846.41
Payout Ratio47.25%55.80%64.35%72.90%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)796.50952.261,111.761,275.061,442.241,613.361,707.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Year 1 PV (M)878.32887.08895.84
Year 2 PV (M)945.81964.78983.93
Year 3 PV (M)1,000.511,030.751,061.60
Year 4 PV (M)1,043.821,086.101,129.65
Year 5 PV (M)1,077.001,131.811,188.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,224.9927,559.4828,947.74
Equity Value (M)31,170.4532,660.0034,207.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
Fair Value$23.09$24.19$25.34
Upside / Downside-23.04%-19.36%-15.54%

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