DDM Analysis: CBAV3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$33.04 - $71.52	$67.02
Multi-Stage	$10.93 - $11.96	$11.43
Blended Fair Value	$39.23
Current Price	$3.56
Upside	1,001.91%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.65%	-10.27%	0.20	0.13	0.50	0.02	0.00	0.08	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.25
YoY Growth	-	-	56.70%	-74.44%	2,745.14%	0.00%	-100.00%	337.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-57.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.15%	3.13%	6.57%	0.09%	0.00%	0.71%	0.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	234.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	130.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	104.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	46.83	29.27	17.56
Cash Retained (M)	104.07	104.07	104.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-46.83	-29.27	-17.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	57.25	74.81	86.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	651.07	651.07	651.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.11	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.11	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.29	0.31	0.33
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$33.04	$67.02	$71.52
Upside / Downside	828.20%	1,782.62%	1,908.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	234.13	249.35	265.55	282.82	301.20	320.78	330.40
Payout Ratio	55.55%	62.44%	69.33%	76.22%	83.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	130.06	155.69	184.11	215.56	250.33	288.70	305.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	144.93	146.30	147.67
Year 2 PV (M)	159.53	162.57	165.64
Year 3 PV (M)	173.87	178.86	183.95
Year 4 PV (M)	187.95	195.18	202.62
Year 5 PV (M)	201.78	211.52	221.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,248.51	6,550.31	6,863.67
Equity Value (M)	7,116.56	7,444.75	7,785.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	651.07	651.07	651.07
Fair Value	$10.93	$11.43	$11.96
Upside / Downside	207.04%	221.20%	235.88%

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Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBAV3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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