DDM Analysis: BWY.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.22 - $23.13	$19.61
Multi-Stage	$27.94 - $30.60	$29.24
Blended Fair Value	$24.43
Current Price	$24.90
Upside	-1.89%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-10.68%	-0.64%	0.59	1.10	1.44	1.31	0.88	1.03	1.50	1.36	1.14	0.88
YoY Growth	-	-	-46.85%	-23.30%	9.22%	50.14%	-14.95%	-31.18%	9.97%	19.11%	29.55%	41.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.35%	3.84%	6.48%	5.34%	2.67%	4.04%	5.04%	4.66%	3.58%	4.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	288.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	201.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	86.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	57.60	36.00	21.60
Cash Retained (M)	86.30	86.30	86.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-57.60	-36.00	-21.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	28.70	50.30	64.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	119.58	119.58	119.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.42	0.54
LTM Dividend per Share	1.69	1.69	1.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.42	0.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.93	2.11	2.23
WACC / Discount Rate	9.27%	9.27%	9.27%
Growth Rate	-2.33%	-1.33%	-0.33%
Fair Value	$16.22	$19.61	$23.13
Upside / Downside	-34.86%	-21.23%	-7.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	288.00	284.17	280.39	276.65	272.97	269.34	277.42
Payout Ratio	70.03%	74.03%	78.02%	82.01%	86.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	201.70	210.36	218.76	226.89	234.78	242.41	256.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.27%	9.27%	9.27%
Growth Rate	-2.33%	-1.33%	-0.33%
Year 1 PV (M)	190.56	192.52	194.47
Year 2 PV (M)	179.52	183.22	186.95
Year 3 PV (M)	168.67	173.91	179.25
Year 4 PV (M)	158.11	164.68	171.46
Year 5 PV (M)	147.88	155.61	163.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,496.63	2,627.09	2,762.94
Equity Value (M)	3,341.38	3,497.01	3,658.72
Shares Outstanding (M)	119.58	119.58	119.58
Fair Value	$27.94	$29.24	$30.60
Upside / Downside	12.22%	17.45%	22.88%

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Bellway p.l.c. (BWY.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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