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Definitive Analysis

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ANZ Group Holdings Limited (AN3PJ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$222.05 - $832.53$659.95
Multi-Stage$107.18 - $117.08$112.04
Blended Fair Value$385.99
Current Price$102.70
Upside275.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.83%1.97%1.401.611.341.160.870.881.371.401.351.40
YoY Growth---12.93%19.91%15.75%33.52%-0.94%-36.01%-2.02%4.04%-3.90%21.29%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.57%1.34%1.17%0.86%0.87%1.36%1.39%1.33%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,633.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,099.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,534.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,726.601,704.131,022.48
Cash Retained (M)3,534.003,534.003,534.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,726.60-1,704.13-1,022.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)807.401,829.882,511.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.673,256.673,256.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.560.77
LTM Dividend per Share3.103.103.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.560.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$222.05$659.95$832.53
Upside / Downside116.22%542.60%710.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,633.0014,519.1515,462.8916,467.9817,538.4018,678.3919,238.74
Payout Ratio74.08%77.26%80.45%83.63%86.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,099.0011,217.7912,439.3613,772.3415,226.0516,810.5517,795.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,376.6410,475.0010,573.36
Year 2 PV (M)10,643.8110,846.5411,051.19
Year 3 PV (M)10,900.7411,213.6611,532.52
Year 4 PV (M)11,147.6911,576.4012,017.36
Year 5 PV (M)11,384.9011,934.7912,505.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)294,594.59308,823.62323,597.23
Equity Value (M)349,048.38364,870.02381,277.39
Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.673,256.673,256.67
Fair Value$107.18$112.04$117.08
Upside / Downside4.36%9.09%14.00%

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