DDM Analysis: A2A.MI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.81 - $46.50	$43.58
Multi-Stage	$6.91 - $7.56	$7.23
Blended Fair Value	$25.40
Current Price	$2.23
Upside	1,039.14%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.98%	12.11%	0.10	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	5.96%	6.71%	14.11%	2.90%	10.55%	21.11%	17.65%	21.43%	11.50%	10.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.58%	5.85%	6.15%	5.11%	4.97%	6.16%	3.55%	3.15%	2.83%	3.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	732.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	351.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	381.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	146.40	91.50	54.90
Cash Retained (M)	381.00	381.00	381.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-146.40	-91.50	-54.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	234.60	289.50	326.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,130.71	3,130.71	3,130.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.09	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.09	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.20	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	6.50%	6.50%	6.50%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.81	$43.58	$46.50
Upside / Downside	788.41%	1,854.12%	1,985.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	732.00	779.58	830.25	884.22	941.69	1,002.90	1,032.99
Payout Ratio	47.95%	56.36%	64.77%	73.18%	81.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	351.00	439.38	537.76	647.07	768.33	902.61	955.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.50%	6.50%	6.50%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	408.70	412.58	416.45
Year 2 PV (M)	465.29	474.15	483.10
Year 3 PV (M)	520.79	535.74	550.97
Year 4 PV (M)	575.21	597.33	620.08
Year 5 PV (M)	628.56	658.92	690.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)	19,032.82	19,952.12	20,906.59
Equity Value (M)	21,631.38	22,630.84	23,667.64
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,130.71	3,130.71	3,130.71
Fair Value	$6.91	$7.23	$7.56
Upside / Downside	209.84%	224.15%	239.01%

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EXPD	Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.	0.99%	$1.50	24.32%
LISOX	Lazard International Strategic Equity Ptf Open Shares	0.99%	$0.13	36.87%
MXC	Mexco Energy Corporation	0.99%	$0.10	12.25%
NIC	Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.	0.99%	$1.19	12.58%
PAYC	Paycom Software, Inc.	0.99%	$1.51	18.80%
RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
CNK	Cinemark Holdings, Inc.	0.97%	$0.23	18.28%
ECL	Ecolab Inc.	0.97%	$2.54	36.57%
EVR	Evercore Inc.	0.97%	$3.41	27.02%
LSBK	Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc.	0.96%	$0.14	24.34%
0ITL.L	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	0.95%	$2.42	39.43%
0IZI.L	W.W. Grainger, Inc.	0.95%	$9.52	26.47%
0L5V.L	The Sherwin-Williams Company	0.95%	$3.11	30.09%
0R2S.L	Stryker Corporation	0.95%	$3.28	43.09%
RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
IMKTA	Ingles Markets, Incorporated	0.93%	$0.65	14.68%
ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
BGC	BGC Group, Inc	0.90%	$0.08	23.56%
CDRE	Cadre Holdings, Inc.	0.90%	$0.37	33.35%
MBNKP	Medallion Bank	0.90%	$0.23	12.50%
JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
RMD	ResMed Inc.	0.89%	$2.18	22.31%
VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
0I14.L	Cognex Corporation	0.88%	$0.32	49.16%
AR	Antero Resources Corporation	0.88%	$0.30	17.15%
LDOS	Leidos Holdings, Inc.	0.88%	$1.61	14.88%
LMAT	LeMaitre Vascular, Inc.	0.88%	$0.70	32.20%
NNI	Nelnet, Inc.	0.88%	$1.14	9.52%
PFSI	PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.	0.88%	$1.16	12.49%
SMBK	SmartFinancial, Inc.	0.88%	$0.32	11.76%
BYD	Boyd Gaming Corporation	0.87%	$0.75	3.22%
ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
BCO	The Brink's Company	0.86%	$1.00	24.81%
HXL	Hexcel Corporation	0.86%	$0.66	77.18%

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A2A S.p.A. (A2A.MI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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