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Definitive Analysis

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The Sumitomo Warehouse Co., Ltd. (9303.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23,470.56 - $56,134.07$52,605.85
Multi-Stage$8,232.21 - $9,010.44$8,614.17
Blended Fair Value$30,610.01
Current Price$3,115.00
Upside882.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.85%13.50%102.45103.03113.3165.4157.3251.2838.3937.7034.6930.08
YoY Growth---0.57%-9.07%73.23%14.11%11.79%33.58%1.82%8.69%15.32%4.12%
Dividend Yield--3.45%3.92%4.79%3.26%3.59%3.96%2.71%2.81%2.44%2.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,809.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,006.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,803.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,361.802,726.131,635.68
Cash Retained (M)13,803.0013,803.0013,803.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,361.80-2,726.13-1,635.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,441.2011,076.8812,167.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.2777.2777.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share122.19143.36157.47
LTM Dividend per Share103.62103.62103.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share122.19143.36157.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend225.81246.98261.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23,470.56$52,605.85$56,134.07
Upside / Downside653.47%1,588.79%1,702.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,809.0023,226.5924,736.3126,344.1728,056.5429,880.2230,776.63
Payout Ratio36.71%47.37%58.03%68.68%79.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,006.0011,001.9014,353.4418,094.1922,260.6026,892.2028,468.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,231.9810,328.9710,425.95
Year 2 PV (M)12,414.8112,651.2812,889.97
Year 3 PV (M)14,555.1114,972.9315,398.68
Year 4 PV (M)16,653.4917,293.9417,952.68
Year 5 PV (M)18,710.5619,614.2820,552.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)563,505.40590,722.93618,982.13
Equity Value (M)636,071.35665,584.32696,202.01
Shares Outstanding (M)77.2777.2777.27
Fair Value$8,232.21$8,614.17$9,010.44
Upside / Downside164.28%176.54%189.26%

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