DDM Analysis: 8174.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11,847.07 - $23,032.12	$21,584.47
Multi-Stage	$3,679.59 - $4,022.53	$3,847.93
Blended Fair Value	$12,716.20
Current Price	$2,651.00
Upside	379.68%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	22.61%	21.89%	85.67	73.01	60.33	49.09	35.62	30.92	17.98	14.08	13.29	8.24
YoY Growth	-	-	17.34%	21.03%	22.90%	37.81%	15.19%	71.96%	27.73%	5.96%	61.15%	-30.31%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.23%	3.05%	2.98%	2.55%	1.89%	2.00%	1.89%	0.65%	1.10%	1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,726.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10,269.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,457.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,545.20	1,590.75	954.45
Cash Retained (M)	2,457.00	2,457.00	2,457.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,545.20	-1,590.75	-954.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-88.20	866.25	1,502.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	109.88	109.88	109.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.80	7.88	13.67
LTM Dividend per Share	93.45	93.45	93.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.80	7.88	13.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	92.65	101.34	107.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$11,847.07	$21,584.47	$23,032.12
Upside / Downside	346.89%	714.20%	768.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,726.00	13,553.19	14,434.15	15,372.37	16,371.57	17,435.72	17,958.79
Payout Ratio	80.69%	82.55%	84.42%	86.28%	88.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10,269.00	11,188.76	12,184.71	13,262.85	14,429.68	15,692.15	16,611.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	10,424.36	10,523.17	10,621.97
Year 2 PV (M)	10,576.68	10,778.14	10,981.50
Year 3 PV (M)	10,726.02	11,033.92	11,347.67
Year 4 PV (M)	10,872.40	11,290.52	11,720.59
Year 5 PV (M)	11,015.86	11,547.93	12,100.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	350,716.04	367,655.76	385,243.80
Equity Value (M)	404,331.37	422,829.45	442,015.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	109.88	109.88	109.88
Fair Value	$3,679.59	$3,847.93	$4,022.53
Upside / Downside	38.80%	45.15%	51.74%

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Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (8174.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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