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Definitive Analysis

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Noritsu Koki Co., Ltd. (7744.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,517.28 - $22,037.34$20,652.22
Multi-Stage$3,395.49 - $3,714.77$3,552.20
Blended Fair Value$12,102.21
Current Price$1,529.00
Upside691.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%49.540.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,894.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,461.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,433.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,378.801,486.75892.05
Cash Retained (M)5,433.005,433.005,433.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,378.80-1,486.75-892.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,054.203,946.254,540.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)107.34107.34107.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.4536.7742.31
LTM Dividend per Share60.1960.1960.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.4536.7742.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.6596.96102.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,517.28$20,652.22$22,037.34
Upside / Downside587.85%1,250.70%1,341.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,894.0012,667.1113,490.4714,367.3515,301.2316,295.8116,784.69
Payout Ratio54.32%61.46%68.59%75.73%82.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,461.007,784.859,253.5110,880.2012,679.2614,666.2315,525.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,248.627,317.337,386.04
Year 2 PV (M)8,022.638,175.448,329.69
Year 3 PV (M)8,783.199,035.329,292.23
Year 4 PV (M)9,530.479,896.9910,273.97
Year 5 PV (M)10,264.6510,760.4411,275.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)320,611.18336,096.82352,175.13
Equity Value (M)364,460.74381,282.33398,732.26
Shares Outstanding (M)107.34107.34107.34
Fair Value$3,395.49$3,552.20$3,714.77
Upside / Downside122.07%132.32%142.95%

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