Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology Co., Ltd. (688676.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.49 - $62.50$40.93
Multi-Stage$21.14 - $23.06$22.08
Blended Fair Value$31.51
Current Price$52.90
Upside-40.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS42.77%0.00%0.530.280.230.220.100.090.100.490.000.00
YoY Growth--86.53%22.99%3.89%126.11%10.07%-8.47%-80.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.33%0.67%0.67%1.11%0.59%0.37%0.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)656.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)259.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)396.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)131.2682.0349.22
Cash Retained (M)396.57396.57396.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-131.26-82.03-49.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)265.32314.54347.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)449.99449.99449.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.49$40.93$62.50
Upside / Downside-46.14%-22.62%18.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)656.28698.93744.37792.75844.28899.16926.13
Payout Ratio39.57%49.66%59.74%69.83%79.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)259.70347.08444.71553.57674.70809.24856.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)313.07316.04319.01
Year 2 PV (M)361.84368.73375.69
Year 3 PV (M)406.29417.95429.83
Year 4 PV (M)446.68463.85481.52
Year 5 PV (M)483.26506.60530.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,500.917,863.218,239.37
Equity Value (M)9,512.049,936.3810,376.26
Shares Outstanding (M)449.99449.99449.99
Fair Value$21.14$22.08$23.06
Upside / Downside-60.04%-58.26%-56.41%

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